Goldman Sachs expects “significant” decline in U.S. inflation in 2023

Goldman Sachs said it expects a “significant” decline in U.S. inflation next year due to easing in supply chain constraints, a peak in shelter inflation and slower wage growth.

The U.S. lender on Sunday forecast core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) –– the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation –– falling to 2.9% by December 2023 from 5.1% currently.

The forecast comes as Fed governor Christopher Waller warned over the weekend that the central bank may consider slowing the pace of rate increases at its next meeting but that should not be seen as a “softening” in its commitment to lower inflation.

Data last week had shown that U.S. inflation cooled more than expected in October, raising bets that the Fed could temper its tightening cycle after delivering four consecutive 75 basis point hike this year.

Surging inflation and the Fed’s battle to control it has sent Treasury yields and the dollar soaring this year, knocking stocks. The S&P 500 (.SPX) is down around 16% so far this year, on track for its worst year since a financial crisis of 2008.